Dubuque, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

856
FXUS63 KDVN 130506
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1206 AM CDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and dry conditions tonight through Thursday.

- Heat and humidity returns Friday through this weekend, with
  precipitation chances increasing Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

A mid-level trough and its associated surface cold front is currently
tracking west to east across central Iowa. This will contribute to
isolated showers and thunderstorms for much of the area through this
afternoon, however coverage will be limited and the persistent cloud
cover from this morning will somewhat limit instability. As such,
severe weather is generally not expected, although with PWATs
remaining near 1.5" and dewpoints in the low 70s that a few storms
may produce locally heavy rainfall. Areas in NW Illinois may
potentially see severe weather into this evening, with slightly
better forcing/shear present, although overall confidence for this
remains low. Skies will clear overnight as winds switch to NNW
behind the aforementioned front. The residual moisture ahead of an
approaching weak ridge combined with the light winds will bring
fog/low cloud cover chances just before sunrise. Any fog should
quickly burn off thereafter and a pleasant day will be in order for
Wednesday, with mostly sunny skies, highs near 80, and lower
humidity. Quiet conditions will persist into the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Cooler and dry conditions will persist into Thursday despite an
upper shortwave passing over the area. Its associated moisture
should remain north of the CWA. A relatively strong upper ridge will
build Friday into the weekend along with SSW surface flow and thus
both temperatures and dew points will increase. This weekend will
see highs in the low-to-mid 90s and heat indices of potentially 100-
105. The aforementioned ridge will stall over central Missouri
Sunday into Monday and much of the storm chances look to remain on
its periphery as shortwaves move around it, however widespread chance
PoPs have been retained in the forecast given the uncertainty this
far out. However, if the current pattern holds, chances would mostly
be confined to the late Monday into Tuesday time frame as the ridge
begins to break down.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1159 PM CDT Tue Aug 12 2025

Passing high pressure after a frontal passage will make for a
simple VFR TAF cycle overnight into Wednesday, with generally
VFR conditions and north to northwest sfc winds of 4-8 KTs. A
low chance for some MVFR fog at a few of the sites before dawn,
but am banking on north winds of at least 4-5 KTs to keep fog at
bay. There should be some ambient cellular CU development by
Wed afternoon, but expect the bases to be at VFR levels by the
time they may become BKN in coverage, if they do.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NWS
LONG TERM...NWS
AVIATION...12